How the Iowa caucus results will actually work — and why 2020’s could be more confusing than ever

The political world is waiting with bated breath to see who will win the Iowa democratic caucuses. But there ’ second another surprisingly murky question : How will we even decide who wins ?
The problem is that there will be three results coming in after Iowa voters gather on the evening of Monday, February 3 .
One will be for something called “ state delegate equivalents ” — this is the phone number previously used to determine the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucuses, something I ’ ll explain more in a act. But the Iowa Democratic Party will besides be tallying and reporting two other sets of numbers : how many actual people voted for each campaigner in a given caucus — first an initial reckoning, then a final examination tally taken after lower-performing candidates are eliminated .
At the very least, this could be confusing. What if, for example, Sen. Bernie Sanders wins more votes but former Vice President Joe Biden wins more state delegate equivalents ? It could make determining who “ won ” quite unmanageable.

In brief, the numbers that Iowa Democrats will report on caucus night are :
1) The pre-realignment vote total: This is the initial count of how many people prefer each campaigner at each of the more than 1,600 person caucus sites ( added together for a statewide entire ). basically, it ’ s who got the most votes the inaugural time round .
2) The final vote total: After the first reckoning, any supporters of a campaigner who got less than a sealed threshold of the vote ( 15 percentage in most precincts ) can shift their support to another campaigner. Candidates who are below the viability doorway are eliminated as “ nonviable, ” and a new and concluding score is taken. So this is who got the most votes after a reshuffle .
3) State delegate equivalents: The final vote sum at each caucus site will then be used to assign each feasible candidate a certain number of county delegates. then those county delegate numbers will be weighted to estimate their “ department of state delegate equivalents ” ( how many delegates each campaigner will get at the Iowa state convention ) .
Announcing these three unlike results is a change for Iowa Democrats. In previous years, only the state delegate equivalents were recorded or reported. therefore when Hillary Clinton “ beat ” Sanders 49.84 percentage to 49.59 percentage in the 2016 caucuses, those percentages were of country delegate equivalents, not votes. We don ’ metric ton know how many actual votes each campaigner got that year .
This year, for the first time, we ’ ll get vote results excessively. That will provide more foil — but could result in a clutter .
The traditional measured for determining who wins is the state delegate equivalents, since, after all, the democratic nomination contest is a contest to win delegates. Yet the actual vote totals may seem more intuitively useful than something based on a building complex formula. And Iowa ’ sulfur importance has never truly been about delegates anyhow — it ’ south about setting the narrative for the media and political earth. So how will this narrative be set ?

How the Iowa caucuses got to this strange place

Before looking under the hood at how the Iowa democratic caucuses sour, we should note that Iowa Republicans have quite different caucus rules : precisely one ordinary vote, with a privy vote, and no realignment or complicated “ state delegate equivalent ” formula. What they do looks a draw more like an ordinary primary .
Iowa Democrats, though, have argued that a caucus should look and feel different from a primary. They want public debate and deliberation. They want attendees to have the opportunity to change their minds. And these caucuses are technically fair the first footstep in a delegate choice procedure that goes forward to county conventions and finally to Iowa ’ south state convention .
Fair enough. Yet Iowa Democrats besides want charm over the national nominate process. They want to produce a clear result for the media and political world to make hay over. So they used a complicate metric unit known as “ country delegate equivalents ” that they began using to report candidate results on caucus nox .
again, fair adequate. Yet Iowa Democrats have besides faced criticism for the whole process ’ second complexity, its miss of transparency, and its potential barriers to participation ( caucus gatherings can last for hours, which can be a trouble for people who have child wish or work, or don ’ metric ton want to drive belated at night ) .
These criticisms came to a head after the close up Clinton-Sanders contest in 2016. Caucus precincts, as was accustomed, didn ’ metric ton record how many votes each campaigner got. sol when reports of miscount results spread on social media and in the press ( many from Sanders supporters ), there was no paper trail that could prove or disprove their claims .
That ’ south why, in 2020, Iowa Democrats have decided to record and report the actual vote totals for the first time, via presidential predilection cards that will look like this :

They ’ ve besides simplified and limited the realignment process, in which people can change their corroborate to other candidates. And they ’ ve locked in the national delegate allotments per candidate to the caucus night results ( rather than allowing them to change in late county or state conventions ) .
so now the Iowa caucuses are no longer strictly traditional caucuses — they ’ re a patchwork combining basal and caucus elements .

How the Iowa caucuses actually work: Vote-counting edition

Members of the audience listen to event organizers during the start of a mock caucus event on January 28, 2020 in Mason City, Iowa.

On caucus night, Democrats will gather at 1,678 precinct caucus sites and more than 90 “ satellite caucus ” sites for Iowans who can ’ thymine make it to their precinct caucus .
To get a common sense of how results at all these individual caucus sites become statewide numbers, let ’ s walk through one conjectural precinct .
The first step ( after some speeches and discussion ) is for attendees in the room to divide up, moving to sit or stand with others who support the lapp campaigner. So lashkar-e-taiba ’ s say there are 100 attendees at this precinct caucus, and they split up the watch ways :

  • Bernie Sanders: 26 people
  • Joe Biden: 23 people
  • Elizabeth Warren: 21 people
  • Pete Buttigieg: 16 people
  • Amy Klobuchar: 14 people

This would be the pre-realignment vote total for this precinct, and this resultant role would be recorded and reported on the preference cards. ( There is no unavowed ballot. )
The number that matters following is the viability brink — which is 15 percentage in most precincts ( but is higher in some precincts that have three or fewer delegates at interest ). Let ’ s say it ’ second 15 percentage in our sample precinct, though .
The way things work this year, a 15 percentage brink means supporters for candidates with 15 percentage or above would be locked in — they can ’ metric ton change their votes now. so here, those initial Sanders, Biden, Warren, and Buttigieg supporters are all locked in.

however, Klobuchar has fallen short, with entirely 14 out of 100 supporters. So her supporters are now free to switch to support any of the feasible candidates ( or none of them, if they prefer ). They ’ five hundred join another candidate group and record their new vote on a preference card .
therefore lease ’ s say Biden gets nine of these Klobuchar supporters, Sanders two, Warren three, and Buttigieg zero. The new vote total would be :

  • Biden: 32
  • Sanders: 28
  • Warren: 24
  • Buttigieg: 16

And that ’ s the final vote total. This would besides be recorded and reported. As you can see, it moved Biden from second topographic point to beginning. Realignment can be significant when there ’ s a disconnected field and no one candidate is running away with a victory. And this realignment procedure will play out individually in each precinct ( meaning it won ’ deoxythymidine monophosphate always be the lapp candidates who are viable ) .
so to get the statewide totals for both the pre-alignment vote and the final vote, you good add up those numbers from each individual caucus site .

How the Iowa caucuses actually work: Delegate-counting edition

now, when delegates come in is when it gets very confuse. then let ’ mho go through it in excruciating detail .
It will be companion to you from former primaries that the overall vote solution in a state contest can differ slightly from its delegate results. That ’ south because Democrats have preset formulas for how their national delegates are allotted ( some from statewide results, some from congressional district results, and proportionately to candidates clearing 15 percentage of the vote ) .
But the Iowa caucuses complicate things further because there are three different sets of delegates involved .

  • Each individual precinct caucus will elect a certain preset number of county convention delegates to go to one of the 99 county conventions in Iowa. Each county gets to determine the size of its convention. (So, for example, Story County and Pottawattamie County have similarly sized populations, but the former will have 200 county convention delegates and the latter will have 400.) There will be 11,402 county delegates overall.
  • Each county also has a preset number of state delegates it will be able to send to the Iowa Democratic convention. And the number of state delegates a county gets depends on how many votes its attendees cast for the Democratic nominees in the most recent gubernatorial and presidential race, averaged. (So, for example, Story and Pottawattamie counties have similarly sized populations, but Story had more Democratic voters, so it gets 83 state delegates and Pottawattamie gets 48.) There will be 2,107 state delegates overall.
  • And all of that is entirely different from the national delegates we’re accustomed to seeing in presidential primary results. These are the delegates Iowa will send to the Democratic National Convention. This year, it will send 41 pledged delegates (who are bound to support to specific candidates based on the caucus results).

so, backing up : Remember that the key system of measurement on caucus nox that Iowa Democrats have tracked in years past is called state delegate equivalents .
In practice, this is a transformation of the precinct caucus night results — how many county convention delegates each candidate gets — to an appraisal of how many submit conventionality delegates that corresponds to .
Let ’ s return, then, to our final vote total above : Biden 32, Sanders 28, Warren 24, and Buttigieg 16. And let ’ s say this consequence came in the Fourth Precinct in Adair County. How does that translate to delegate results ?
Well, party officials consult a master delegate allotment number from Iowa Democrats to calculate. hera ’ s the relevant sting :

  • First off, this particular precinct will choose 10 county convention delegates.
  • To get the county convention delegate result, then, you apply the final vote total proportionally and round where necessary.
  • Here, Biden’s 32 supporters get him three delegates, Sanders’s 28 get him three delegates, Warren’s 24 get her two delegates, and Buttigieg’s 16 also get him two delegates.
  • But then we have to change those county delegates to state delegate equivalents.
  • And it turns out that this precinct’s 10 county delegates would be worth, together, 0.78 of a state delegate.
  • So Biden and Sanders each get three-tenths of that (0.234 state delegate equivalents), Warren and Buttigieg would get two-tenths each (0.156 state delegate equivalents),

Those, then, are the state delegate equivalent results for this precinct .
so yes, the caucus-goers at this individual site will be fighting for bantam pieces of a fraction of a state delegate. And then we repeat this for 1,677 other precincts in Iowa and the satellite caucus sites, add up all those bantam pieces, and we ’ ll have our results by state delegate equivalents. Simple, right ?

Iowa Democrats want to be fair to candidates but also have a clear winner. The result is a mess.

The curious or possibly maddening aspect to all this is that the Iowa caucus results scantily matter to the true way Democrats choose their campaigner : home convention delegates .
This year, Iowa has 41 of those pledged delegates — about 1 percentage of the national entire. And since they ’ rhenium allotted proportionately based on the above results, it ’ south tough for any candidate to rack up a big head there. ( It would barely matter evening if a campaigner did, because the overall phone number at stake is indeed small. )
But the caucuses ’ boastful affect on the race has little to do with delegates anyhow. It ’ randomness all about the perceptions of the political world. The media, party insiders, donors, activists, the candidates themselves, and even voters elsewhere look at what can be relatively small differences in Iowa results — and come to conclusions about which candidates have “ won ” or “ lost. ”
You ’ ll notice that in our hypothetical precinct results, though, we got three unlike results for who “ won ” :

  • For the pre-realignment total, Sanders had the most votes.
  • For the final (post-realignment) vote total, Biden had the most.
  • For state delegate equivalents, Sanders and Biden were tied.

Of run, the leave didn ’ t switch that much ; Biden and Sanders were the lead two candidates and are close to each other in all three metrics. But the state delegate equivalent convention means that discrepancies from the right to vote sum may — will — be introduced in each those 1,600-plus precincts. If one campaigner ends up being systematically disadvantaged by these discrepancies, a different system of measurement could mean a unlike “ winner. ”
It could all result in a muddle mess. If a campaigner gets the most votes but not the most express delegate equivalents, he or she will surely try to claim victory, with good cause. For Democrats hoping to winnow their sphere and start to coalesce around a candidate, that might be unpleasant. But for those who have long believed Iowa has far besides a lot determine on the appoint process, an incoherent result could actually be a good thing .

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